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【专题讨论】Top Glove, Supermax与Kossan, 三国鼎立?

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楼主: pya_ch       显示全部楼层   阅读模式

楼主
 楼主| 发表于 27-10-2007 12:48 PM | 显示全部楼层
topglov在这么高的本益比(18左右)
买进其实不怎么理智(5.95),
可是,我还是买了
也许现阶段的价格买进只适合短期投资吧,
anyway,计划赶不上变化,
随即应变吧,反正好股不怕收,
只是回酬率的问题而已

[ 本帖最后由 pya_ch 于 27-10-2007 12:52 PM 编辑 ]
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发表于 27-10-2007 01:15 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #81 pya_ch 的帖子

你的买价(RM5.95)很安全啦。Top Glove从21/09/2007开始就每天买回自家的股票,把市价从RM5.95拉到26/10/2007的RM6.60。只要Top Glove继续回购股票,股价很难再跌回RM5.95。

Top Glove最近一批的private placement的价钱是RM8.80, 这表示Top Glove和投资者在那时都认为Top Glove的股份至少值RM8.80,那Top Glove的回购股票会不会到RM8.80才结束呢?

如果我RM6.60买进,RM8.80卖回给Top Glove (哈。哈。)。回报已经有33%, 很好的报酬率了。。。
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楼主
 楼主| 发表于 27-10-2007 01:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 Mr.Business 于 27-10-2007 01:15 PM 发表
你的买价(RM5.95)很安全啦。Top Glove从21/09/2007开始就每天买回自家的股票,把市价从RM5.95拉到26/10/2007的RM6.60。只要Top Glove继续回购股票,股价很难再跌回RM5.95。

Top Glove最近一批的private plac ...

可是这已经违反了股价便宜与否是看本益比,
不是看价格
不过算了啦,跟他死过
天啊,我也不理智了,
大牛来咯
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发表于 28-10-2007 03:57 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #83 pya_ch 的帖子

原帖由 Harimau 于 12-12-2004 12:21 AM 发表
在现在 900 点左右的时候,好股的 PE 会偏高(但不表示 PE 高的就是好股哦!),而 PE 还偏低的,肯定是有一些问题使到他们偏低。

EON, Megan, WCT 都是 PE 偏低的股,他们都有各自的问题困扰着。

所以在 900 点的时候,选 PE 高的好,还是选 PE 低的好,见仁见智也。

我的看法是,不要理他现在 PE 是高还是低,那是 600 点的时候才要理的。现在要理的是,以今天的价钱来看,明年、后年、大后年,PE 是否低?低就好了,而且越来越低的更好。



以上帖子是Harimau于2004年12月讲的,如果有人因为当时Top Glove 的PE高而决定不买进她,他就因此错过了Top Glove在这两年的高增长了。

当时KLCI是900点,那现在KLCI已经是接近1400点,要找PE低的好股不是更难?

我觉得Top Glove现在只是暂时处于困境,如果中国工厂和Medi-Flex真能在明年3月前转亏为盈,我相信市场会对Top Glove有新的评价。
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发表于 28-10-2007 06:14 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #83 pya_ch 的帖子

以市价RM6.50买进Top Glove, 比那些在2月份以RM8.80购买private placement的投资者好太多了。。。


Submitting Merchant Bank : RHB INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD
Company Name : TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD  
Stock Name  : TOPGLOV
Date Announced : 07/02/2007   
   
Type : Announcement
Subject : TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BERHAD ("TOP GLOVE" OR THE "COMPANY")
Placement of up to 27,217,902 new ordinary shares of RM0.50 each in Top Glove ("Shares"), representing approximately 10% of the enlarged issued and paid-up share capital of the Company after the completion of the proposed bonus issue as announced on 17 October 2006 (the "Proposed Bonus Issue") (the "Placement")

Contents :

We refer to Top Glove’s announcements dated 4 January 2007, 17 January 2007, 2 February 2007 and 5 February 2007 in connection with the Placement ("Announcements"). Unless otherwise defined, the defined terms used in the Announcements shall apply herein.

On behalf of the Board of Directors of Top Glove, RHB Investment Bank Berhad (formerly known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad) ("RHB INVESTBANK") is pleased to announce the completion of the book-building process in relation to the Proposed Placement. Top Glove has appointed RHB INVESTBANK, J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd and CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd as Joint Bookrunners for the Placement.

The issue price was fixed at RM8.80 per Share (which represents a discount of approximately 4.97% to the 5-day weighted average market price of Top Glove Shares up to 6 February 2007 of RM9.26 and a discount of approximately 5.38% to the closing price of Top Glove Shares on 6 February 2007 of RM9.30).


This announcement is dated 7 February 2007.
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发表于 28-10-2007 06:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 Mr.Business 于 26-10-2007 07:37 PM 发表


再讲讲商海这一篇文章,文章作者很赞赏Supermax收购APLI和Seal Polymer的举动。可是如果我们回顾历史的话,其实我们可以发觉Supermax的这两项收购并不是非常顺利的。
.........
收购公司并不是想象中那么容易。。。


生意兄说言即是。
看回我老板一年多前入股(成为major shareholder)的公司,起初以为该公司的产品可以补助我方的range,可是接二连三的问题不断浮现,直到最近又有一位股东离开,我才领悟到这个硬道理。

之前,有位和该公司老板相熟的供应商曾经好意表达,要注意此人的言行,我也不以为意的转达于老板。想起这段事,不知我老板会不会说:早知如此。。。。

呵呵,做生意不熟不做,就算熟悉,品德才是更重要的考量点呀!
做生意从小做大是一门学问,而收购又是另一门学问了。
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楼主
 楼主| 发表于 4-11-2007 09:40 PM | 显示全部楼层
今天讀到麥青遠的作品時提到,
收購其實很多時候會不如想像合算,
因爲要賣的人會盡力粉飾,
所以很多時候收購會不如預期,
因此自然成長很多時候是更好的做法,
大衆不就在這次的銀行合併做到了這點?
就連巴菲特也說他的收購其實是在害股東虧錢,
驚訝嗎?別擔心,
巴菲特收購的公司仍是賺大錢的公司,
只不過並不如自己原本的公司,
好比原本的囘酬是24%,
但是收購的公司是22%,
整體而言就是少了一點點,
更何況很多時候一般公司的收購並不如巴菲特,
所以我們的囘酬更加少了,
而且收購失誤虧損的是股東的錢,
所以執行董事很多時候是用股東的錢買教訓,
如果會醒決還不要緊,
可是往往他們只會持續的犯錯,
身為散戶股東的我們則負責持續賠錢,
如果你說他們是大股東,
難道他們不虧錢?
別忘了,賬有很多种做法的
當然我這裡沒說supermax是這樣的無良公司,
這裏想說的只是自然成長很多時候比通過收購更為合算而已
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发表于 5-11-2007 03:12 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #87 pya_ch 的帖子

2005年2月入主APLI,2007年11月闹假帐和进PN17,Supermax是好公司吗?
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发表于 5-11-2007 03:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
Top Glove终于放上最新的研究报告了 (10月份),不过好象miss掉一些之前不看好Top Glove的研究报告。其实如果Top Glove能把全部不论看好或不看好她的研究报告都放上网站,我会更欣赏。。。
http://www.topglove.com.my/investor_analyst.htm

至于Supermax,要进她的Investor Relations网站可是要log on的,可我登记了两个星期她都还没email密码给我。。。:@
http://www.supergloves.com/investor.php
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发表于 25-11-2007 02:31 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #89 Mr.Business 的帖子

刚刚比较了三国,以下是一点点总结:

TOPGLOVE四季的EPS是35.55仙,现在股价是RM5.90,PE是16.6。
KOSSAN两季的EPS是14.40仙,如果接下来两季的成绩保持一样,那么一年的EPS是28.80先。现在股价是RM3.80,PE是13.19。
SUPERMAX三季的EPS是18.66,平均没季的EPS是6.22,那么一年的EPS大概是24.88仙。现在股价是RM2.19,PE是8.8。
三国里,SUPERMAX最便宜。

TOPGLOV从今年高峰RM9.85下滑到现在RM5.90,跌了40.1%;KOSSAN从今年高峰RM5.90下滑到现在RM3.80,跌了35.59%;SUPERMAX从今年高峰RM2.69下滑到现在RM2.19,跌了18.59%。
三国里,SUPERMAX跌最少。

课外话,FELDA已经买进超过5%的SUPERMX股权。郑金森说:这是好事,因为FELDA是提供原料的供应商之一,所以在原料供应方面占了优势。杜拜投資集團DIG虽然减少了SUPERMAX的股权,但是还持有SUPERMAX超过5%的股权(2006年年报)。
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发表于 25-11-2007 06:49 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #90 khliew7 的帖子

PE真是有趣的东西,是不是PE越低越值得买呢?我想应该不是。应该是因为觉得公司值得投资才会买进。
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发表于 25-11-2007 07:10 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #91 Mr.Business 的帖子

我看了三个的account才知道为什么pe会不同,也了解为什么topglove值那个pe而其他不值,市场原来完全没有低估,现在的pe很正常,很正确。

管理层素质=pe
topglove account 一流,所以pe最高
kossan有一点弱点,所以pe比topglove低
supermax有做假账和管理不善的成绩(account 里可以看到清清楚楚),所以pe最低。

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发表于 25-11-2007 07:28 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #92 8years 的帖子

我同意8年兄的看法。

我在想Supermax现在拥有APLI的48,295,000股 (13.9%),并没拥有控制性股权。APLI的股数是347.6 million股,如果Top Glove买下其中51%股权,只需177.276 million股,RM30.16 million的投资额 (以每股RM0.17的价钱计算)。

Top Glove控制APLI,就能:
1. 破坏Supermax的扩展计划;
2. 派会计师查APLI的假帐,说不定Supermax的老板就会吃上官司,Top Glove轻易打败第二号对手。
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发表于 26-11-2007 09:20 AM | 显示全部楼层
新闻。

Monday November 26, 2007

The future of gloves

Between the Lines:
By C.S. TAN

FOR a setting of share price direction when there are uncertainties in an industry, the rubber glove sector provides an insight.  

Top Glove Corp Bhd, for instance, has seen a 40% drop in its share price this year even though its latest quarterly results showed a 33% rise in pre-tax profit.  

Supermax Corp Bhd, a smaller glove manufacturer, announced on Wednesday the earnings in its latest quarter rose 27%. Its share price went up by all of 1 sen the next day.  

Similarly, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd's share price has declined by RM1.00 from the start of the year, when its price was RM4.80, to RM3.80 on Friday.  

The glove companies produce a humdrum product but their shares were anything but boring in previous years. They delivered high earnings growth and saw a steady rise in their share prices.  

The under-performance of the glove stocks is due to several factors, such as concerns over the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for which an increase is widely expected next year.  

Tenaga Nasional Bhd, the biggest user of LPG, pays RM6.40 per mmbtu (one million British thermal units), while other companies in the industrial sector pay about RM12.90 per mmbtu. The international price is about RM24.00.

It is of even greater concern to investors that Gas Malaysia Sdn Bhd, an associate company of Petronas, is believed to be reluctant to increase the supply of LPG to manufacturers, as it is not profitable to do so.

That would restrain glove makers from expanding their capacities, as most of them currently use LPG to heat their industrial processes.  

Industry players said, however, they had contracted for additional LPG supplies for their expansion into 2008 or even 2009. Supply should not, therefore, be a problem in the short term.  

As for higher LPG prices, if that is raised too much, the glove makers are prepared to switch to biomass or coal. That would ensure that LPG supply would not be a constraining factor in their expansion plans from 2009 or beyond.  

Investors are also worried over a perception that earnings growth will be slower in future. Disproving that, the results of Supermax were quite good.  

While Top Glove's earnings growth was still quite strong, some fund managers were surprised it was achieved in spite of no increase in revenue, which stood at RM307.7mil in Q4/07 compared with RM307.6mil in the same quarter last year.  

It is understood there was no revenue increase in Q4/07 because latex prices were lower during that period compared with Q4/06. That accounted for the expansion of profit margins in its Q4/07 period.  

While the downdraft of share prices is painful for shareholders, it has given other investors an opportunity to get into the glove stocks at inexpensive, current year price/earnings (PE) valuations of mid-teens for Top Glove and just under 10 times for Kossan and Supermax for companies growing at over 20% a year.  

Non-events  

It is not only Supermax that produced higher earnings without being rewarded with a higher share price.  

Many other companies in the small to mid-cap space delivered strong earnings growth while their share prices languished.  

This was partly due to a macro view of uncertainties that the US could slip into a recession early next year, and if the Chinese stock markets would continue in their steep correction.  

Companies here that did well include Sino Hua-An International Bhd, a manufacturer of coke for the iron and steel sector in China. It reported a 46% rise in net profit in its latest quarter, and its share price remained unchanged at 79 sen at the end of the week, down 39% from RM1.30 at the start of the year. It's also unusual for a stock that is largely doing business in China to be trading at a PE of less than six times.  

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 554655&sec=business

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 26-11-2007 09:26 AM 编辑 ]
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发表于 26-11-2007 11:06 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 Mr.Business 于 25-11-2007 07:28 PM 发表
我同意8年兄的看法。

我在想Supermax现在拥有APLI的48,295,000股 (13.9%),并没拥有控制性股权。APLI的股数是347.6 million股,如果Top Glove买下其中51%股权,只需177.276 million股,RM30.16 million的投 ...


top glove share buy back 的钱就轻易吃掉20巴的股权, 不过游戏那样玩的话, 好像做戏一样
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发表于 26-11-2007 11:29 AM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #95 江湖 的帖子

想想剧情应该这么做。我假设是Top Glove的老板。我私人用10个人头,在市场收购APLI的股份,每个人头收购4.9%的股份,所以我有49%的股份;同时我再让Top Glove在市场收购5%的APLI股份。收购完成之后,我将尽快让Top Glove接管APLI,然后派会计师查APLI的帐,看看有没有假帐存在。如果有假帐存在,那Supermax的老板就麻烦大了。当Top Glove控制APLI的消息传出,APLI的股价一定大涨,所以我的收购不会亏损。如果APLI真有假帐,Supermax的老板被捉,那Supermax的股价一定惨跌,我趁低收购,至少在Supermax拿个董事位,然后在Supermax搞搞阵,运气好的话说不定我还能拿到Supermax的控制权呢 (如果其他股东支持我的话)。。。
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发表于 26-11-2007 11:35 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 Mr.Business 于 26-11-2007 11:29 AM 发表
想想剧情应该这么做。我假设是Top Glove的老板。我私人用10个人头,在市场收购APLI的股份,每个人头收购4.9%的股份,所以我有49%的股份;同时我再让Top Glove在市场收购5%的APLI股份。收购完成之后,我将尽快 ...


公司的老板,应该是认真作生意,还是认真抄股?
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发表于 26-11-2007 11:40 AM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #96 Mr.Business 的帖子

想要干掉老三也不是用这种手段吧??
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发表于 26-11-2007 11:46 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 26-11-2007 11:35 AM 发表


公司的老板,应该是认真作生意,还是认真抄股?


老板, 企业收购会不会也是做生意的一种?如果顶级真的用这一招,老板还会不会支持?
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发表于 26-11-2007 11:51 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 26-11-2007 11:35 AM 发表
公司的老板,应该是认真作生意,还是认真抄股?


公司的老板,应该是认真作生意,不应该抄股。

可是公司的老板更应该为股东创造价值,击败竞争者。企业收购不也是做生意的一种方法? 上天给机会我们吞掉其他公司,我们不去珍惜,这是不对的。。。




原帖由 scsiang82 于 26-11-2007 11:40 AM 发表
想要干掉老三也不是用这种手段吧??


Supermax是老二。。。商场不就是如此残酷的吗?

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 26-11-2007 11:58 AM 编辑 ]
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